Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-04 18.634708 22.483113 26.746574 31.795219 37.584353 43.988735 51.582262
2025-05-11 13.148505 18.194261 24.388437 32.439081 42.503702 54.543609 69.896149
2025-05-18 9.785868 15.135547 22.258657 32.195218 45.427908 62.157007 84.579622
2025-05-25 7.332223 12.566247 20.064984 31.190778 46.820605 67.500488 96.354382
2025-06-01 5.771695 10.869539 18.670528 30.884838 48.842002 73.518508 109.097251
2025-06-08 4.403430 9.135930 16.874210 29.645747 49.256219 77.178923 118.675423
2025-06-15 3.760914 8.462357 16.580266 30.556200 52.760901 85.256212 134.674326
2025-06-22 2.954372 7.296444 15.268163 29.644833 53.342930 89.049063 144.680403
2025-06-29 2.584746 6.886796 15.182076 30.695620 57.001535 97.521731 161.809291
2025-07-06 1.949234 5.756801 13.593514 28.958326 55.971174 98.754618 168.186381
2025-07-13 1.726454 5.489648 13.598494 30.021996 59.611190 107.354704 186.004698
2025-07-20 1.521762 5.212500 13.534790 30.932315 63.021644 115.723121 203.776121
2025-07-27 1.319040 4.921018 13.469897 31.977993 67.003133 125.636540 225.096893
2025-08-03 1.111544 4.557509 13.202284 32.626677 70.385899 134.859255 245.941064
2025-08-10 0.888939 4.063540 12.539997 32.381774 72.091103 141.347195 262.658744
2025-08-17 0.674735 3.497293 11.580957 31.372641 72.245191 145.159712 275.130552
2025-08-24 0.533859 3.113835 10.990993 31.065264 73.678897 151.203471 291.482086
2025-08-31 0.391734 2.640287 10.047295 29.820325 73.132789 153.687043 301.912814
2025-09-07 0.337830 2.511064 10.036517 30.735080 76.986711 164.207889 326.388170
2025-09-14 0.250976 2.166099 9.307140 29.819407 76.980630 167.683221 338.840295
2025-09-21 0.219123 2.084295 9.371837 30.875156 81.184394 179.101017 365.517486
2025-09-28 0.148577 1.712897 8.395491 29.129639 79.222877 178.862352 371.634518
2025-10-05 0.129894 1.657009 8.483105 30.198355 83.495228 190.633510 399.530122